The Strait of Hormuz closure is becoming a poverty trap for the Global South. What began as a war shock in the Gulf is now moving through fertilizer markets and straight into the food chain, threatening planting seasons, harvests, and household budgets across countries already dangerously exposed to imported inputs. The stakes are high: at least 30 million people could be pushed into poverty if the disruption keeps spreading.
A Gulf War Shock Is Now Hitting the Global Food System
The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil chokepoint. It is also one of the world’s most important routes for fertilizer trade. About 30% of global fertilizer trade passed through Hormuz in 2024, and nearly half of the world’s urea is produced in countries in the region.
The danger goes beyond urea. The Persian Gulf also accounts for roughly 45% of global sulfur exports, a key ingredient for phosphate fertilizers, a hidden backbone of the world's modern food system.
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