Southeast Asia is increasingly discussing a Taiwan contingency with more confidence than its strategic position justifies. The assumption that US military power would automatically stabilize the region is no longer reliable. Yet many governments still treat the main challenge of a Taiwan crisis as a civilian evacuation problem. In reality, evacuation would only be the beginning. The more difficult phase would come afterward, when external powers begin pressing Southeast Asian states for access, cooperation, and political alignment.
At that point, neutrality would be tested in practice rather than in principle.
Why Southeast Asia Would Be Drawn Into a Taiwan Crisis
A conflict over Taiwan would not remain confined to the Taiwan Strait. While Southeast Asia may not be the primary battlefield, it would still sit within the operational space of the war. China already integrates the region into its contingency planning, and the PLA’s Southern Theater Command is
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