Philippine Economy Set to Grow in 2026 — But Will Rising Oil Prices Derail It?

According to new reports, the Philippines is expected to see economic growth in 2026, with GDP projected at 5.3%, up from 4.4% in 2025. The projected improvement reflects a gradual recovery in business activity and consumer spending. However, this outlook is increasingly shaped by global risks, especially rising oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East.

While the headline numbers suggest progress, the truth is that the average Filipino is already suffering due to the energy crisis. The big question is if the projected growth will be possible if energy costs continue to rise.

GDP Growth Supported by Domestic Demand, But Still Below Potential

Economic growth in 2026 is being driven mainly by local demand. More business activity, job recovery, and steady investment are helping push the economy forward. This is creating more opportunities for workers and small businesses after a slower period.

However, growth remains below the country’s potential