A major carbon credit project in Indonesia is facing growing scrutiny, raising broader concerns about how global carbon markets measure climate impact.
The project, located in Sumatra and backed by a major pulp and paper group, was designed to prevent deforestation and generate carbon credits. These credits allow companies to offset emissions while supporting forest protection.
On paper, the project is significant. Covering around 130,000 hectares, it claims it could prevent more than 373 million tons of carbon emissions, giving it an estimated value of $2.6 billion.
However, recent findings suggest that the climate benefits may have been overstated, putting both the project and the wider carbon market under the microscope.
Inflated Deforestation Claims Raise Red Flags
At the center of the issue is how the project estimated future deforestation. Developers assumed that most of the forest would be cleared without intervention. This
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